The delta wave is lethal for the middle-aged | Discussion board

The current U.S. wave of COVID-19 deaths does not yet appear to have peaked even though cases and hospitalizations may have, and the CDC’s deaths-by-age data lag the headline numbers by several weeks. This makes it much too early to say how dangerous this latest wave has been for different age groups relative to other threats such as influenza, heart disease and car crashes. When I last made such a comparison in March, it showed COVID-19’s 2020 toll to have been far worse for U.S. adults than just about any major cause of death in a normal year (the exception was heart disease), but much less so for children.

The 2021 COVID-19 death toll for Americans under 18 is already higher than for all of 2020, even though overall COVID deaths are still lower, so the relative risk numbers will clearly look different for this year. But the under-18 death toll also remains small – 241 this year versus 198 in 2020 – and most of that increase has been among teenagers.

Another thing that is clear from the changes in the distribution of COVID-19 deaths by age is that the pandemic has shifted from being most dangerous for the oldest Americans to targeting the next few age groups below them.

The vaccines surely explain most of the subsequent shift in the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths. They were first made available to senior citizens, who remain the most likely to be vaccinated.

Age group 65-74 sees higher deaths

Vaccinations clearly don’t explain everything. Those ages 65 through 74 have the highest vaccination rate, but have seen their share of COVID-19 deaths go up slightly since March. That’s probably because they’ve been getting out more than their elders, and also because the nursing home outbreaks that were responsible for a large share of the deaths among those 75 and older have become much less deadly thanks to high vaccination rates and regular testing at the nursing homes, as well as the sad fact that so many of the most vulnerable nursing home residents already succumbed to earlier pandemic waves.

The age groups with the biggest increases in the share of COVID-19 deaths, though, are those from 35 through 64. Simply compare the numbers of COVID-19 deaths this year with those for all of 2020, meanwhile, and every age group under 55 has seen a rise in COVID-19 deaths in 2021 – which is far from over! – with the biggest jumps among those 25 through 54.

These people are less likely to be vaccinated than their elders and more likely to be exposed to COVID-19 at work, at play, at home with the kids and elsewhere.

Justin Fox is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering business. He was the editorial director of Harvard Business Review and wrote for Time, Fortune and American Banker. He is the author of “The Myth of the Rational Market.”