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Healing
COVID-19 decline could are available in two weeks | Native Information
05
Oct
Oct
The Southside Health District — an area that encompasses Halifax, Mecklenburg and Brunswick counties — could see COVID-19 cases decline by Oct. 7, according to the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.
The latest report issued Friday believes cases for Virginia overall have already peaked for the fourth wave of the pandemic, but some areas could be slower to see a retreat.
“The big question right now is whether Virginia will experience a repeat of last winter’s surge, with this new variant, in this new environment,” researchers wrote in the report. “As noted last week, this largely depends on whether Virginians choose to get vaccinated, including boosters when eligible, and practice other prevention measures.”
Halifax County’s seven-day average of new infections has grown to 17 after staying level at about a dozen for a month. All new cases are being driven by the delta variant, said Brookie Crawford, a spokesperson for the Virginia Department of Health.
“Delta is far more transmissible, and, though severe outcomes are still rare, poses a greater risk to young Virginians,” UVa researchers said.
Despite that, the so-called “delta wave” has only caused about 40% of the cases compared to the deluge of infections last winter. At least so far.
“Right now, the Delta wave appears to have peaked,” the UVa report said. “However, the sharpest growth last year occurred over the holidays, beginning around Thanksgiving.”
In general, models provide the best tools to understand what the future of the pandemic holds. However, the computer simulations encounter many struggles like variants and human behavior.
To get a better understanding of what could happen this winter, the Virginia Department of Health has enlisted the help of Metaculus forecasting.
“Although no one has a crystal ball, Metaculus leverages cutting-edge methodologies to aggregate the forecasts of a highly engaged network of thousands of forecasters,” scientists wrote.
In general, the forecasters with Metaculus are optimistic that Virginia could avoid another harsh winter surge.
One reason lies in the fact that likely the delta wave cases have peaked well before Thanksgiving. Had this current surge extended, the picture may be vastly different.
The team at UVa also is working with Metaculus to gain greater insight into new variants in an effort to fill the gaps in forecast modeling.
All scenarios show vaccinations could prevent thousands of cases into next year.
Currently, 54% of Halifax County adults are considered fully vaccinated along with 46% of the overall population. That still lags from 72% of all Virginia adults fully vaccinated and 60% of all state residents — including children— having the proper doses.
“Do your part to stop the spread,” researchers wrote Friday. “Please continue to practice good prevention, including masking, social distancing and self-isolating when sick, and get vaccinated as soon as possible.”
