Ohio is ‘cresting:’ COVID-19 circumstances development down, hospitalizations stay excessive

The latest COVID-19 surge in Ohio seems to have peaked or at least plateaued, based on recent data for cases, hospitalizations and test positivity.

The state’s new case rate for the past two weeks dropped this week for the first time since July, from 698.7 to 616.7. That figure is a fairly stable snapshot in time when it comes to cases, since it’s consistently applied to the same timeframe each week and considers the number of cases by the date someone first felt ill or took a positive coronavirus test.

The number of new cases reported each day, averaged over seven days to account for fluctuations in reporting, was down to 5,814 Thursday from 6,648 one week prior.

The number of people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 statewide has also stabilized, averaging about 3,600 a day for the past week, according to a USA TODAY Network Ohio analysis of Ohio Hospital Association data.

Those numbers suggest Ohio is “cresting,” Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, director of the Ohio Department of Health, told reporters Friday.

“That’s encouraging but it’s certainly not a reason for us to declare victory over COVID and walk away,” he said. “There’s still a lot of cases we’re seeing every day and I will not feel confident this wave is declining and passing until we start seeing some more definite and consistent decreases in our hospitalizations across the state.”

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Thursday’s per capita case rate, based on a seven-day moving average, was the lowest since Sept. 4, according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking project. But it still ranks ninth highest in the nation.

Hospitalizations tend to peak after infections, as it can take up to two weeks for someone to feel ill enough to seek medical care. There were 3,559 COVID-19-positive patients in Ohio hospitals on Friday, about the same number as in mid-January, on the back half of the last surge.

Deaths have also increased in recent weeks, with 349 being reported in the past week. Deaths can be reported several months after someone dies because death certificates are first sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The number of deaths will likely continue to rise as Ohio makes its way to the other side of this wave.

“This wave, the delta wave, when it has hit portions of the world that have had low or negligible vaccine rates has caused a level of devastation that we were spared,” Vanderhoff said.

Current hospitalizations reached a low of 200 statewide on July 9. Cases had dropped down to about 211 per day. Then, the more contagious delta variant became the dominant strain in Ohio.

Jackie Borchardt is the bureau chief for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.